The Greens have suffered a heavy blow in the 2025 election, losing most of their lower house seats and failing to win any new ones. The party will have the balance of power in the Senate but the hopes that gradually electing more Greens MPs could force Labor into minority government have been dashed.
Greens leader Adam Bandt lost his seat of Melbourne, which he has held since 2010. The party also lost two of the three Queensland seats it gained in the 2022 election, including that of Greens housing spokesperson Max Chandler-Mather.
The lesson is that the road to radical change doesn’t lie in parliament but outside it.
The mainstream media has been quick to claim that The Greens losses represent voters’ rejection of the party’s strong stance on Palestine and support for the CFMEU.
The media went into a frenzy when Chandler-Mather spoke at a CFMEU protest against the draconian Administration regime imposed by Labor in 2024.
But the overall Greens primary vote was almost unchanged, dipping just half a per cent to 11.7 per cent of the vote nationally.
The most immediate cause of their lower house losses was the increase in primary vote for the ALP, at the expense of both The Greens and the Liberals. The Greens vote in the seats they lost was down by more than the national average.
In Griffith and Melbourne where there was a three-way contest between The Greens, Labor and the Liberals, the Liberals were pushed into third place with their preferences going to Labor instead of The Greens.
Many people voted Labor to keep Peter Dutton out. But The Greens also failed to benefit from the disillusionment against Labor that exists over the cost of living, climate action and Palestine.
Balance of power
The Greens promote their ability to “deliver change” by supposedly using the balance of power in parliament.
But their attempts to use the balance of power in the Senate over the last three years delivered little. The concern they would be seen as blocking Labor’s agenda actually saw them pass Labor measures on housing and climate action without gaining serious improvements.
It was mistaken for The Greens to give their tick of approval to Labor’s fraudulent climate Safeguard mechanism. This simply allowed Labor to give the impression it was acting on climate, all while expanding fossil fuels. Similarly, on housing, The Greens eventually capitulated and waved through Labor’s bills.
Going into the election The Greens made the right call to “Keep Dutton Out” but their goal to hold the balance of power in a minority Labor government has pulled them more and more to focus on parliament.
This explains The Greens’ decision to release a policy supporting “defensive” arms spending for the first time in order to be seen as a responsible partner for Labor. It was a dangerous concession to Labor and the warmongers who are preparing for war on China and stands in stark contradiction to their general anti-war position and their principled stand on Palestine.
The last three years have shown the weakness of balance of power politics. Labor always has the option to go to the Liberals to pass legislation, as it did over refugees and to impose Administration on the CFMEU.
Focus on parliament
In Queensland, Chandler-Mather has championed a long-term strategy of gradually growing the number of seats The Greens hold with the aim of forming a Greens government by 2040. But the election result has blown this scheme to pieces.
The bedrock of this strategy was large-scale door-knocking campaigns. In 2021 Chandler-Mather laid out an “18-year plan for a Greens government” over six election campaigns. He placed a strong emphasis on how the resources that came with winning each seat—staffers and so on—would build momentum for the next victory.
It should be clear from The Greens’ fate in this election that the electoral road to radical change is a dead end.
There is a danger in the wake of Bandt’s defeat that The Greens will move further to the right. That has to be resisted. Millions of people voted Green because they want a left alternative to Labor.
The Greens could play a powerful role building and promoting movements for change if its MPs focused on mobilising those millions to struggle outside parliament. It was a step forward when Max Chandler-Mather spoke at the CFMEU rally but defending the CFMEU didn’t feature in their election campaign.
Change comes from the struggle in the streets and the workplaces. This is the only way that The Greens’ principled stand on issues like Palestine, unions and refugees can be turned into real gains.
And it is the only way we will build the power needed to overthrow the system and win a world for the billions, not the billionaires.
By Adam Adelpour
