The sweetest moment of the federal election was seeing the racist Liberal leader, Peter Dutton, lose his own seat of Dickson after 24 years in parliament.
The Liberals have been reduced to a rump in parliament but Labor’s historic victory is not the emphatic endorsement of Albanese’s agenda that it might seem.
Labor’s primary vote increased by only 2.2 per cent, recovering to 34.8 per cent, a similar level as when it lost the 2016 election to Malcolm Turnbull. Polling on the eve of the election showed more people disapprove of Albanese’s work as Prime Minister than endorse it. Only a third of the population was confident the government would make a difference on the cost of living.
Albanese’s support for Israel also saw swings against Labor and big votes for some pro-Palestine independents. In Western Sydney Ahmed Ouf won 20.6 per cent in Blaxland and Ziad Basyouny gained 15.6 per cent in Watson—both very safe Labor seats. In Wills, in Melbourne, a pro-Palestine campaign saw a 7.5 per cent swing to The Greens in two party preferred terms, aided by an increase of 5.5 per cent for Socialist Alliance’s Sue Bolton.
In three other seats Victorian Socialists candidates polled between 6.6 and 8.9 per cent.
US President Trump cast a big shadow over the election. Dutton’s embrace of Trumpism was a major factor in seeing the Liberals routed.
Early this year Dutton praised Trump as a “big thinker” after he announced his plan for ethnic cleansing in Gaza and said he’d appoint Jacinta Price to run a local Department of Government Efficiency, modelled on Elon Musk’s chainsaw operation against the public sector. Dutton attacked woke politics, pledged to sack 41,000 public servants and end work from home.
But after Trump launched his tariff war and the stock market crash that followed, the Trump factor became a big negative for Dutton. As the Liberals’ popularity plunged, he kept producing Trumpian outbursts, claiming that children were being “indoctrinated” in schools, then railing against Welcome to Country ceremonies, bashing immigration and denouncing the ABC and The Guardian as “hate media”.
His pro-fossil fuel policies and wild plans for nuclear power were the icing on Dutton’s right-wing cake—altogether too much for many Liberal voters to swallow.
By the same token, Albanese said nothing critical of Trump and has even invited him to visit Australia. Trump is now lavishing praise on Albanese.
Labor has won majority government but there won’t be any radical policy changes from Albanese. He has dragged Labor to the centre of Australian politics and is determined to occupy the middle ground and manage Australian capitalism.
The Greens’ electoral ambitions have also taken a hit, with the loss of two seats in Brisbane and leader Adam Bandt’s seat still in doubt. Their “balance of power” strategy to “deliver outcomes” in parliament hasn’t delivered.
Too often they went along with Labor’s agenda to avoid Albanese attacking them as blockers. They passed Labor’s useless centrepiece climate policy, the Safeguard Mechanism in March 2023, helping to promote the dangerous fiction that this parliament had acted on climate. Emissions have gone up. They even adopted a defence policy in the hope of being seen as a more respectable parliamentary party. They dug in over housing policies, only to capitulate at the last minute and wave through Labor’s bills.
With Labor holding a clear majority, it is just as clear that it will be struggle outside of parliament that will be central to fighting Labor over climate change, AUKUS and nuclear submarines and union rights.
Where now?
The scale of Labor’s victory means it can expect to hold office beyond the next election.
It will be harder for Albanese to use the threat of a Coalition government coming to power to silence critics and stifle opposition from the unions and the social movements.
His victory speech was full of flag-waving nationalism as he positioned Labor as the party of the political centre. He spoke of the need to “work together to build our national unity” and said he would “govern for all Australians”. He even held up his Medicare card declaring that it was “green and gold” in “our national colours”.
Disillusionment with Labor will only grow as wages fail to keep up with the cost of living while the government spends billions boosting military spending and backing US imperialism. Albanese talked about closing the gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians but is backing Santos against the Gomeroi in their fight against the fossil fuel giant fracking their land. He has overseen the sharpest spike in Indigenous incarceration in history.
Labor has no answer to the housing crisis, with none of its policies even pretending to bring down prices to affordable levels. Albanese again ruled out an end to the subsidies to rich housing investors in negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions.
He continues to allow the export of weapons to Israel as it carries out genocide, dismissing calls for sanctions and any effort to pressure Israel to respect international law. Albanese has tied himself to US imperialism through the $368 billion nuclear submarines deal even as Trump creates global chaos.
Labor pays lip service to climate action but it is right behind boosting mining company profits and expanding coal and gas projects.
Hundreds of jobs are being cut in universities but Labor shackles the unions with anti-strike laws while attacking union militancy with the government-imposed Administration of the CFMEU.
The High Court will soon hand down its decision over the union challenge to Administration. It will be industrial action that will determine the future of the CFMEU.
Trump has unleashed economic havoc on the world economy. If his tariff war pushes China into recession, the Australian economy will be hit hard.
To fight climate change, end the genocide in Gaza and win real wage increases, we need to build stronger unions, more strikes and more powerful movements on the streets. Labor is committed to running the system that puts profit before human need: socialists want to smash it.
