Solidarity spoke to a young Iranian activist about the war
What do you think about the US bombing?
I’m very much against it. First of all, the bombing campaign is not going to bring regime change. The other option would be boots on the ground and that is going to be infinitely more devastating.
The priority of the US is never bringing democracy. For them it’s about getting what they want out of Iran.
The main problem that we’re facing right now is the monarchists really want to make this a binary, you’re with the Islamic Republic or you’re with [the old Shah’s son Reza] Pahlavi and the monarchist side. We reject that completely. We think change from within is possible.
They want to point to the protests that happened about two months ago and say it shows that you can’t have change from within. But they had no plan or organising [on the ground]. Pahlavi just told people to get out into the streets and start taking over institutions. That is not how a revolution works.
What do you think about the regime? You’re critical of the regime?
Very much. Quality of life has gone down. There’s a portion of it that can be blamed on US sanctions.
Israel and the United States are always threatening Iran and causing the government to pour money into the military to make sure that they have a deterrent against attack. But there’s also economic mismanagement and there are incredibly high levels of inequality.
I came to Australia around 2018, after Donald Trump’s economic sanctions and his “maximum pressure” campaign.
I hadn’t been to Iran up until seven months ago in July, about two weeks after the 12 Day war. I saw incredibly high levels of inequality. Roughly around the mid-1990s up until now the regime privatised everything. Even though the economic sanctions have caused hardship, economic development is concentrated in the hands of a few people—the oligarchs, we call them. They have very close ties to the regime.
A lot of the privatisation is in the hands of the IRGC. The people who are connected to them make a lot of money out of it. And that’s causing high levels of inequality.
I was wondering if there was anything you can share about what people are feeling inside Iran about the bombing? One of the things I think has been raised is that the bombing is actually likely to push people towards the regime.
We saw in the 12 day war and we see it here again, when people are under the threat of bombs, they see the regime as the only saviour in terms of making the bombs stop. Iranians are very nationalistic. They’re very proud of their nation.
The more it continues, it’s just going to drive more and more people towards the regime.
There’s a misunderstanding from the Israeli and the American side of how the Iranian system works. Ali Khamenei was brutal. A lot of people hated him. But [his death] will probably lead to people more extreme than him to fill that vacuum. Mojtaba, the new supreme leader, has never held any governmental position, and also hasn’t actually given any public speeches. So there was a shock about why is this man being chosen? Well, he’s attached himself to the IRGC. And the IRGC wanted to do military campaigns that Ali Khamenei would actually not allow. They’re going to become more extreme.
Do you find much of a difference between the message you get out of Iran and the diaspora here?
In the diaspora, the dynamic was very different than inside Iran. After the revolution in 1979, a lot of people went into Western countries, Europe, America, Canada, Australia, and they created their own communities. These used to be people who were the upper middle class back then, who used to benefit from the old corrupt system of the Shah.
There’s also the fact they live here. They don’t experience the bombings.
I still do think Pahlavi and the monarchists have a base of support in Iran, I don’t know how much, but I think it’s 10 to 15 per cent, who hold the same opinion as these people do. Here they’re the majority of the Iranian community.
Then I think there’s about 20 per cent to 25 per cent in Iran who are supportive of the regime. And then there’s 50 to 60 per cent in the middle who want a free republic and more social democratic reforms or reforms inside the system. And I think the unfortunate thing is these 50 to 60 per cent in this war are probably going to be pushed more and more towards the Islamic Republic.
