News that the Trump administration is reviewing the AUKUS deal to ensure it is “aligned with the president’s ‘America first’ agenda” has reignited attacks on the plan.
The US is supposed to sell Australia between three and five nuclear subs, the first of them in 2032. But the US is already short of submarines and construction is running well behind schedule. It is currently producing 1.2 submarines a year and needs to almost double this to 2.3 a year to produce enough boats. Elbridge Colby, US under-secretary of defence for policy who is running the 30-day review, has said he is “very sceptical” of AUKUS, saying it could put the US navy in a “weaker position”.
But there’s no reason to expect the US to cancel the deal so soon—because this is the kind of deal Trump likes. The Australian government has agreed to hand over $4.5 billion up front to help US shipyards speed up production. But when the date for the first sale arrives in seven years’ time, the US can back out and refuse to sell Australia any submarines.
The most likely outcome is that the Australian government will have to wait longer and pay even more than the current price tag of $368 billion.
Former UK national security adviser Peter Ricketts told ABC’s Four Corners, “these things will be more expensive and later than is currently expected”.
Worse, the Trump administration looks set to use the Albanese government’s enthusiasm for getting nuclear subs to pressure it for more military spending overall.
According to the Financial Times, “Several people familiar with the matter said the Aukus review was related to US efforts to get Australia to boost its defence spending, with one saying it was a ‘negotiating tactic’.”
The government should cancel the AUKUS deal now. But we’re also in for a fight to stop Albanese wasting millions more on weapons and war.
