Donald Trump’s bombing of Iran was supposed to demonstrate the US’s military might, through punishing or even bringing down the Iranian regime.
Instead it is exposing the limits of US power. The US and Israel have done serious damage in Iran, assassinating Supreme Leader Mohammad Khatami and other senior figures, and bombing military installations and infrastructure at will.
But Iran has managed to damage radars and missile defence systems at US bases in six of the nearby Gulf states and closed the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries one fifth of the world’s oil supply.
The US has discovered there is little it can do to stop this, short of a major escalation of the war. Trump has called on allies to provide warships to re-open the strait. It’s a humiliating admission that the US is not all-powerful. So far, no country has accepted the invitation.
Trump has tried to reassure financial markets that the war will be over quickly to prevent a surge in global oil prices and major economic turmoil. But Iran has no reason to agree to this. So the US now faces the prospect of a humiliating backdown to cut a deal with Iran.
Some say that Trump’s decision to launch the war was a result of following Israel and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s agenda.
But in June last year Trump had no trouble ending Israel’s assault on Iran, phoning Netanyahu to order him to turn around bombers and blurting out to reporters that “they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing”.
Trump’s decision to attack Iran was made with the US’s own interests in mind.
Trump wants to reassert US power globally. He has adopted a policy of brazen imperialism, using military force to grab control of resources and profits for US companies. He has launched air strikes against seven countries in the past 14 months and used the threat of force to extract concessions in Greenland and Panama.
Trump was emboldened by the success of his attack against Venezuela in January that saw the kidnap of President Nicholas Maduro.
The leader who replaced him, Delcy Rodríguez, has been far more accommodating to US demands, including over the country’s oil.
But Iran’s regime has held together far better. There is no obvious figure willing to give in to Trump’s agenda and the powerful military factions within the regime have shown no desire to capitulate.
Contest with China
The US is a superpower in decline. Its once globally dominant economy faces increasing competition, most importantly from China.
Trump’s actions in Latin America aim to reverse China’s growing economic influence there, with his National Security Strategy late last year declaring that, “We want a Hemisphere that is free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets.”
In the Middle East, Iran is not just the state most hostile to US interests. It has also forged a close partnership with China. Due to US sanctions, Iran exports almost all its oil to China. It has also received limited military exports from China and uses Chinese surveillance and satellite technology.
It’s true that, as academic John Calabrese put it, “Iran has long needed China far more than China has needed Iran.” China gets more oil from both Russia and Saudi Arabia than it does from Iran.
But weakening Iran would cement US dominance of the Middle East and send a message to China, as well as other states considering defying the US.
The US itself does not need Middle East oil. But the war has highlighted how Asian nations, including China but also US allies Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, rely on oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.
The current onslaught is a continuation of Israel’s wars since October 2023 against Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iran. These have significantly altered the balance of power in the region to the US’s advantage through weakening Iran and its allies.
This is why the US arms Israel and guarantees it a “qualitative military edge” over all the other states in the region. For decades Israel has served as an attack dog advancing US imperialist control in the Middle East.
Trump and Israel’s killing spree is being backed by other Western states including Australia. The Albanese government is still allowing the export of weapons parts to Israel, including for its F-35 fighter jets, and supplying military intelligence through Pine Gap and other US bases in Australia. It has sent a surveillance aircraft and missiles to the UAE.
Imperialism is a product of capitalism and the competition between the world’s most powerful countries for power and profit. The US’s desperation to maintain its position is making the world a much more dangerous place.
By James Supple
