Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance’s public dressing down of Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky at the Oval Office sent shockwaves across the Western political establishment.
In the past, Zelensky received praise and standing ovations from both former US President Joe Biden and Western European nations including the UK, France and Germany, who presented him as a hero defending freedom and democracy.
But the war in Ukraine has always been a proxy war between Russia and the US-led NATO alliance, part of the imperialist scramble for power and profits.
Russia should never have invaded Ukraine. But the conflict followed concerted efforts by NATO since the collapse of the Soviet Union to expand eastward, threatening Russia’s borders.
The US disregarded Russia’s insistence that Ukraine not be allowed to join NATO and refused to negotiate.
It also built up Ukraine’s armed forces, encouraging Zelensky with promises he would have support to defeat Russia.
David Arakhamia, the parliamentary leader of Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, led Ukrainian negotiations with Russia shortly after the invasion in 2022. He has confirmed that the two sides were close to a peace deal where Ukraine would accept neutrality and agree not to join NATO.
Instead, then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson travelled to Ukraine and urged Zelensky to reject the deal and “make war”.
Zelensky’s strategy of relying on Western imperialism to counter Russian aggression saw him pledge to make Ukraine an outpost for Western imperialism. It would become a “big Israel”, as he put it, a highly militarised state serving US imperialist interests and backed with Western weaponry.
This has backfired badly, especially for ordinary Ukrainians who have died in huge numbers and seen large parts of their country devastated.
US and European states—and Australia—have poured massive military spending and aid into Ukraine but this has not resulted in a swift end to Russia’s attacks, rather more than three years of war.
Ukrainians are tired of the war. A Gallup poll in December showed a majority of Ukrainians want a negotiated end to the fighting, with just 38 per cent still believing that “Ukraine should continue fighting until it wins the war”.
Growing numbers of Ukrainian troops are deserting or dodging conscription. Officially 90,000 troops have deserted but officials admit the real figure is much higher. “Entire units have abandoned their posts,” the Associated Press reported in November.
At the Oval Office meeting, Zelensky’s demand for security guarantees from the US as part of any agreement was sharply rebuked by Vance and Trump.
Zelensky has now agreed to sign an agreement handing over billions of dollars worth of Ukrainian minerals to the US and has accepted an initial ceasefire proposal. But the terms of any long-term peace settlement with Russia will be sharply contested.
Trump’s imperial reset
Trump’s shifting of US policy on Ukraine is not the result of support for Putin or a desire for global peace, as he sometimes claims, but a reset of US imperial strategy.
With the war turning in Russia’s favour and little prospect of any Ukrainian victory, Trump wants to stop pouring money into the conflict.
Trump is also demanding Western European governments commit to increased military spending to take on more responsibility for funding NATO themselves.
Both Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese have criticised Trump’s position on Ukraine, worried about the implications for Australia’s own alliance with the US.
Albanese has sought to cement this through the $368 billion AUKUS agreement to build nuclear-powered submarines, to try to draw the US further into projecting power in the Pacific and South China Sea.
Although Trump replied “what’s that?” when asked about AUKUS, he remains committed to the alliance.
The decline of US power has meant that China, which has both the world’s largest manufacturing base and a growing military, has emerged as the US’s most important rival.
The disastrous failures of the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have also resulted in regional powers such as Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia exerting more influence in the Middle East.
While Trump is keen to cut US commitments to Ukraine in the immediate term, he wants to pivot against China, creating the increased possibility and danger of unthinkable war.
Trump’s focus on both China and Iran is indicated by the imposition of a tariff war on Chinese goods. Trump has also become bullish against Iran, demanding that it end its nuclear program.
We must continue to demand an end to the war in the Ukraine, the withdrawal of Russian troops and oppose NATO or Australian troops and military support being sent to Ukraine.
We must also step up efforts to force Labor to ditch its support for nuclear-powered submarines and warmongering aimed at China.
By Jasmine Ali
