Donald Trump has again backed down from a major escalation of his war on Iran, saying another deal was close that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump’s threat to destroy Iran’s electricity infrastructure with “the biggest attack since World War Two” risked the war spreading out of control.
It came after Yemen’s Houthis launched attacks on Saudi oil shipments in the Red Sea. This has further choked off global oil supplies, disrupting Saudi Arabia’s efforts to get around the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by re-routing its oil exports.
Saudi Arabia launched airstrikes against Iranian-allied militias in Iraq in response, accusing them of attacking Saudi oil infrastructure, too.
Unwilling to admit that the US has suffered a defeat, Trump has zigzagged between bombing Iran in a hopeless effort to force its capitulation and pausing to return to negotiations.
Iran is determined to hold onto control of the Strait of Hormuz, where it has been able to block one fifth of the world’s oil supplies, to force concessions and as a deterrent against future attack. It also wants to charge tolls or service fees on commercial shipping to secure compensation for the damage done through US bombing.
Far from wilting under US attack, Iran itself triggered the collapse of the June memorandum agreement, which was supposed to lead to a final conclusion to the war. Iran targeted oil tankers trying to sail through the Strait which refused to use its designated routes or to co-ordinate with its navy.
This followed the US’s effort to skirt the terms of the agreement, which tasked Iran with responsibility to “make arrangements … for the safe passage of commercial vessels” through the Strait. Instead, the US tried to arrange for ships to transit the Strait using a separate designated route.
Iran ended another period of calm at the end of July when it launched an attack on a US base in Jordan.
Despite Trump’s bluster and foul-mouthed tirades, it’s clear he still wants a deal.
Problems
The US faces a series of problems.
It is running low on missile interceptors needed to defend US bases and its Gulf allies from Iranian attacks. Iran’s use of relatively cheap Shahed drones has forced the US to run through billions of dollars’ worth of missiles.
US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has admitted the war has cost it $53.6 billion so far.
General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned in late July that another escalation of bombing could dangerously deplete interceptor stocks, the New York Times reported.
The US has already suffered extensive damage to its military bases across the region.
Concerted bombing of US bases across Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Jordan early in the war left some “all but uninhabitable”, as the New York Times put it. At least 20 US military installations across eight countries have sustained damage, the BBC reported in June. Three of only eight THAAD missile defence systems the US operates worldwide have been damaged, it said.
And Iran still retains the ability to fire missiles at these targets, despite US efforts to hunt down and destroy missile launchers and production facilities.
The impact on world oil supplies will also worsen if the Strait remains closed. In addition to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil installations have also reduced its production capacity.
Global stockpiles of oil have been drastically reduced, after many countries released emergency supplies when disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz began in March.
The IMF says they will run out completely at current rates by early next year if it remains closed, sending the price of oil soaring with the next few months.
Trump is running out of options. He has failed to achieve any of the aims he set out at the start of war, such as regime change and the destruction of Iran’s military forces.
Iran has suffered enormous damage to its economy through US and Israeli bombing and economic sanctions. But its ability to survive this and maintain the closure of the Strait means it has a stronger hand now than when the war began.
Trump’s war has deepened the global cost-of-living crisis through pushing up the price of oil and sent his own approval rating to its lowest ever level, threatening disaster at November’s mid-term elections.
And it has only confirmed the decline of US power.
By James Supple
