As this was written the US was launching another wave of military strikes on Iran, with Iran retaliating by targeting US bases in the region.
This comes after Trump called off a plans for a major military attack in early August, claiming another deal was imminent. But again nothing resulted.
Now the US says it is launching a campaign of “maximum economic pressure” aimed at cutting Iran off from its remaining trading partners. Major military action seemed to be off the table, although the US has continued to launch more limited strikes.
One reason is the strain on the US military. It has burned through nearly 80 per cent of its missile interceptors for the THAAD system during the war, and half of its Patriot interceptors, CNN reported.
The navy was also forced to recall the aircraft carrier the USS Abraham Lincoln following suicide attempts on board.
This has meant moving another aircraft carrier from the Pacific, diminishing the US presence there.
The Washington Post reported in late August that the heads of the army, navy and air force as well as the four-star commanders who oversee US operations in Europe, Asia and Latin America had all warned Secretary of War Pete Hegseth that prolonging major military operations against Iran was unsustainable and threatened the US’s ability to operate elsewhere.
But Iran still retains the capacity to fire missiles at US bases and target ships in the Strait of Hormuz with cheap drones. It has humbled the US through closing the Strait and wreaking havoc with global oil supplies.
The US still hopes to put an end to this through finding ways to get ships through the Strait. So far it has been unable to significantly lift shipping traffic.
The US military claims to have cleared mines from the area as part of this effort. The latest round of strikes began when it bombed Iranian rocket launchers that it said were attempting to disperse more mines in the area.
After six months, Trump has failed to achieve any of his objectives in the war.
His hopes for a deal that would offer a way out have run up against Iranian intransigence.
Iran insists on terms including an end to the regional war, including in Lebanon, a lifting of the blockade of its ports, compensation and sanctions relief, the head of its national security council, Mohsen Rezaei, says.
It has refused to accept terms for an end to the war that would allow Trump to claim victory.
Economic pain
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says new sanctions would mean an “economic onslaught” and “D-Day” that would force Iran to give in.
But so far other countries have mostly ignored the US’s threats.
The US has also moved slowly in imposing any sanctions on third countries–with two branches of Egypt’s Banque Misr in the United Arab Emirates the only targets hit so far as we went to press.
The biggest problem for the US is that completely isolating Iran would mean dealing with China.
China, which buys 90 per cent of Iran’s oil, immediately warned it would retaliate against any measures that targeted Chinese companies.
And its control of the bulk of the world’s rare earth metals makes it hard for the US to push it around. Last year it forced the US to retreat on trade sanctions against it after briefly cut them off.
The US has imposed sweeping sanctions on Iran for decades and has now added its own blockade on Iranian shipping exiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has suffered massive damage to its infrastructure, and President Masoud Pezeshkian admits that foreign trade has shrunk by nearly 35 per cent since the start of the war.
Annual inflation hit 66 per cent in July and unemployment and the cost of living have surged.
But there is no sign this will force the regime to capitulate.
Midterms
The war is now more unpopular than ever in the US, with 63 per cent opposing it in an Ipsos poll in late August.
It is driving down Trump’s support as he faces midterm elections in November that could see the Republicans lose control of Congress.
The midterms may also be influencing the Iranian regime’s decision to prolong the war.
According to political analyst Trita Parsi, “Iranian officials say, both publicly and privately, that they expect the US and Israel to resume the war after the midterms regardless of the impact of the D-Day sanctions. Regional diplomats have largely reached the same conclusion.”
The US failure has shown again the limits of its power. And with Trump’s reckless war still driving up the cost of living, it also threatens to sink his presidency.
By James Supple
